Wilder wins Nomination

Hardly a surprise, I know. But John Wilder is the Democratic nominee to lead the State Senate in the new session. Not a surprise despite the challenge Sen. Joe Haynes. The only interesting outcome from the meeting was Sen. Jerry Cooper's depature from the meeting today without indicating his support for Wilder. Previously, Sen. Cooper had said that he would not support Wilder for another term as Lt. Governor. Next Tuesday's vote will be interesting, not to mention a weekend full of potential posturing.

Schooling the Board of Education? Vandy Survey Results

The Tennessean is reporting on some of the early results from Vanderbilt's Peabody Center for Education Policy's poll of Tennesseans. Full results will be given to the State Board of Ed later this month.

Mayoral candidates, listen up! These are 601 poll respondents who voted in November.

Some of the findings? Not that surprising. They represent a mis-mash of popular prejudices about public education in America.

-Tennesse's education system rates poorly.
-Teachers ought to be paid more.
-BUT, we're not eager to spend more money on the educational system.
-Parents are primarily to blame for the state of education. (This is my favorite one)

I hope the full report offers some sane policy recommendations.

Meet the Gatekeeper - Marsha Blackburn

Rep. Blackburn is named Deputy Republican Whip, serving under Rep. Roy Blunt. She is quoted as saying that being "deputy whip will give her the opportunity to rally the support needed to counteract democrat policies 'that would raise taxes and wreak havoc on our surging economy.'" (Tennessean)

Cast Your Vote - Report Highlights Difficulties with Electronic Voting Machines

We're all familiar, perhaps even tired, of reports of voting problems, dare we say fraud in some cases? Since Bush v. Gore, such voting issues have been a hot topic. The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) only deepened the controversy by ushering electronic voting machines into our lives. Conspriacy theories about the 2004 elections popped up like mushrooms. The conventional wisdom was that the 2006 mid-terms put to rest remaining concerns about the efficiency and efficacy of electronic voting machines (notwithstanding the Florida 13th district bruhaha).

But out today is a report by VoteTrustUSA.org (homepage) that deserves all our attention. No, this is no shrill accusation of vote-fixing and over-arching conspiracies. This is a reasoned, serious, documented accounting of the 2006 vote. The full report can be downloaded here.

One of the most troubling findings among the conclusions is this,

there were over three and a half times as many reports of problems with DREs; nearly nine times as many usability difficulties with DREs; and over fifteen times as many reports of long lines and/or voters leaving without voting. In fact, scanner or EBM malfunctions only resulted in long lines and/or voters leaving without voting when poll workers failed to allow voters to deposit ballots for later scanning.

Tennesse is one of those 38 states that rely on DRE or Direct Record Electronic voting machines. Here in Metro Nashville, long lines were the story of the 2006 elections. (Tennessean) The high turn-out was great news. The inability of the of system to handle a robust electorate is not.

The Davidson County Election Commission's answer is to buy more machines. While more machines may help, this report casts doubt over the type of machine itself. It's not an issue of the brand or manufacture of machine (whether Shelby county's Diebold machines or Davidson's iVotronics). (Tennessean) Nor does it seem to be purely an issue of familiarty with the machines as the report finds,

The problems experienced cannot be blamed entirely on the implementation of new equipment in this election cycle. For example, 78 problems were reported about the DREs Georgia has been using since 2002, and the equipment which is now the subject of legal challenges in Sarasota County, Florida has been in place since the 2002 primaries.

A sobering read.

King of the County - The Debates to Come

I was just musing over the talking points and not so polite questions, dirt, and mud that may be slung as the Nashville Mayor's race heats up. Also in this list are issues that the candidates may have to confront as the race goes on. Right or wrong, these topics are likely to be aired as the candidates get running.

Karl Dean - As public defender, he represented hundreds of alleged criminals such as drug dealers, murderers, rapists, robbers and child molesters; there are questions under state law about the legality of his using his wife's money, just like the John Kerry wife money issue; he has zero name recognition(or maybe 3%).

David Briley- Briley is a Trial Lawyer (I capitalize those words to refer to the media caricature of a trial lawyer) and brags about it (see his "witty" commerical "delicately" emphasizing just this - YouTube; he is too green and/or not experienced enough; a strong advocate for immigrant and gay rights under the law; he can't raise the necessary money; he plans heavy use of internet but so will the other candidates.

Buck Dozier - Nashville Christian School closed under his supervision; he was $3 million dollars over budget when he was in charge of the Metro Fire Dept. and used equipment money to paint the fire trucks instead; very right wing.

Howard Gentry - unstable job history; lacks management ability to the point where council meetings run until 2am; his 2003 tie-breaking Metro Council vote on gay rights; he can't raise the money.

Bob Clement - Lifetime in politics; strong partisan Democrat; "old politics"; talks slow and Southern (not slick-sounding).

The list is by no means comprehensive. Just some musings as lunchtime slips away.

Legal Red Tape - The Roll goes on

The wrangling over J. Houston Gordon's place on the Judicial Selection Commission's slate of candidates to the State Supreme Court goes on. The Supreme Court itself will weigh in on the issue.

The Judicial Selection Commission had planned on submitting an entirely new slate of candidates to Bredesen this month, in accordance with a Davidson County Chancery Court decision which sided with Bredesen. But the Supreme Court's decision to take up Gordon's appeal will delay the Commission.

Arguments are set for February and we are not to expect a decision for some time. Apart from the legal intracies of this controversy, the latest twist is fascinating. The 4 Supreme Court justices will weigh in on the process for selection of their future colleague. City Paper

The Next Governor's Race

It's never too early to start thinking about who will vie for Bredesen's job in 2010. I've mused earlier on this, commenting that Rep. Marsha Blackburn's ads in the 2006 House race had an eye on the Governor's Mansion in 2010.

I think it's time to add another Republican name to the potential bunch. Former Senator Bill Frist. Having officially declined to enter into the 2008 presidential fray, he's spending more time with his family. And who could blame him? The prospect of campaigning on the shining acheivements of the 109th Congress wasn't exactly thrilling, least of all to the leader of that fracas.

Bill may consider taking historically more successful route to the White House. Most who successfully run for President have been their homestate governor may be his thinking and he is right. By 2010, the memory of the 109th Congress will probably be long fuzzy.

Other Repubicans wanting to run may turn out to be Marsha Blackburn, Zach Wamp, and maybe Jim Haslam Jr.

Legal Red Tape (the whole roll)

Business TN has an interesting cover article about one figure caught in the bruhaha between Bredesen and the Judicial Selection Commission. (Business TN) Interesting for its coverage of the history of the Tennessee Plan and its unforseen consequences, this piece is really a pean for J. Houston Gordon. An emminently qualified jurist, Gordon is caught in the peculiar situation of being on the controversial slate resubmitted by the Judicial Selection Commission.

Interesting reading ... but a technical legal controversy only a lawyer could love.

King of the County - Big Bucks and a New Face

Aah, the new year, time for the Nashville Mayoral race to get serious. Two interesting tibdits.

-Clement winning over Republicans? The City Paper is reporting today on the electoral importance of winning over Davidson County Republicans. Clement is apprently taking this advice seriously, having had a sit-down with State Rep. Beth Harwell. Also of interest is Davidson County Republican Chariman Jon Crisp's comment that Republicans are leaning toward Bob Clement. An early trend but significant. If you combine Clement's apparent growing Republican support with his Democratic base and that does not leave much room for other candidates. It's shaping up to be a $2 million race for Mayor. It's highly doubtful that anyone but Clement can raise that amount.

-The crucial issues facing Mayoral candidates are shaping up to be Education and Crime. Bob Clement has emphasized these issues for a year now. Today, the City Paper editorial has agreed, pointing to them as the key issues for the race. There seems to be lots of agreement. David Briley, Karl Dean, and Buck Dozier all echoed same two issues in their announcements. So, no disagreement on issues. Everyone is moving to ground that Clement has cultivated for some time now. Winning is all about shaping the debate. Clement's team has done it's job well.

-As for the new face, Karl Dean's entry to mayoral race is big news. But it seems to be bad news for David Briley. They both draw from the same young trial lawyer base of support. One big difference is that Dean's wife has a significant family coal-mining fortune. Dean will probably follow Bredesen's model and self-finance to take advantage of that pot of money. While the money will flow, Dean may be forgetting that Bredesen lost his first two elections (agianst Bill Boner for Mayor and against Bob Clement for Congress in late 1980's). Money aside, Dean may have other problems. Dean also is viewed as the candidate who will keep the incumbents like David Manning (widely unpopular) in office. Despite all this, Dean is getting serious. He is offering staff jobs at up to $10,000 per month already and hired Jim Hester at a reported $8,000 per month. Hester ran Ford campaign up to June 2006 when he was forced out and moved over to Democratic Coordinated Campaign (not a good sign).

Cleaning out the Inbox - Governor and Party Roundup

-Gary Odom was elected by Democrats in the General Assembly. It appears to be a protest vote against Bredesen, punishment for his beneign neglect of them. Odom and Bredesen never been close. If anyone recalls, Odom raised significant questions about finances and contracts on Bredesen's original deal with Titans. Odom was right but nobody cared. Football can always trump politics.

-Gov. Bredesen has appointed Stuart Brunson to be new Deputy Governor, replacing Dave Cooley. This is a speed-bump of a story. Brunson's appointment will mean little practical change as Cooley and Brunson have long worked together as a team. A new face is all this is really about. The only significant change that Brunson's appointment will bring is even more influence for Johnny Hayes, Bredesen's chief fundraiser. Brunson and Hayes are business partners in various lobbying interests. The pick of the new Deputy Governor is all in the family.

-Not getting the tap for Deputy Governor was Randy Button, former Democratic state party chair. Failing to get the spot, Button has formed a lobbying company of his own.

-Bredesen apparently will tap Gray Sasser, son of former U.S. Senator Sasser, to be the new Democratic state party chair. A weak move by Bredesen as there seems to be some doubts about Gray's fundraising abilities. All this is of course subject to a vote next week by the state party executive committee. But really, whoever Bredesen wants in this role, he'll get.

Cleaning out the Inbox

As the new year rolls on, I thought I'd at post some of the tidbits from the past month or so. I know, I know ... old news is not news. I'll feel better though when the inbox is clean. So, following will be series of old news posts

Surge and Accelerate - Getting Ready for the Debate

The semi-official leaks of the "New Way Forward in Iraq" are making their way through the morning news shows. While none of the information is a surprise, the media engines are beginning to rev in preparation for exhausting coverage of the official announcement scheduled for sometime next week.

So let's review ahead of the media blast.

According to the leaks the plan's central pillar is to boost troops numbers by 20,000. Also, reconstruction funding will be boosted. The "logic" of the plan is to accelerate the fight for security so that the Iraqi's can take over security roles sooner. The title of this new way forward? "Surge and Accelerate"

Ok, let's take this step by step:

-This plan is immensely unpopular: The American people are overwhelmingly against the idea of a surge. 56% Oppose, 11% Favor, %32 for the Status Quo. (Polling Report). The troops on the ground oppose this plan. For the first time, serving troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war. In terms of troop numbers, 39% favor current levels or lower while %22 favor a surge similar to Bush's plan. (Military Times Poll)(AP News).

-In terms of the reconstruction effort, where did Bush get the notion that more money is the answer. As has been amply demonstrated, the problem with the reconstruction to date has been corruption and a lack of security. (Washington Post)(BBC). Even giving Bush the benefit of the doubt about the outcome of the surge in terms of security, I will be eagerly awaiting details on where this new money will come from and how it will be handled differently from past reconstruction monies that have been squandered, wasted, or outright stolen. Also, while Congressional Democrats may be too timid to withhold funding from our troops, it is a relatively risk-free proposition to withhold funding from the proven money-pit that is the Iraqi Reconstruction.

-From a P.R. perspective, "Surge and Accelerate"? Really?! This is the best they can come up with? In a more serious vein, the time for new slogans has long been over. But apparently, P.R. and political concerns are paramount with the Administration. The New York Times had an interesting piece yesterday. Apparently, by mid-September the Administration could not deny what has been obvious to the rest of the world, namely that Iraq was spiraling out of control. They saw the need for a reassessment but would not say so publically before the elections. So, let me get this straight, the lives of our troops are less important that appearing steadfast?! (New York Times).

This just in, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has announced that he will not seek a second term and that he "wishes his job was over"!! (Reuters).

Worst of all, this is the administration's best idea! No really, no other ideas. The American Enterpise Institute's Frederick Kagan told the Wall Street Journal yesterday.

"If we surge and it doesn't work, it's hard to imagine what we do after that. But we're already in a very bad spot, and if we don't do anything defeat is imminent."

All in all, I don't see more numbers making a difference. But it sure will be an interesting week.

Brushing off the cobwebs

I must apologize for my brief hiatus away from blogging. The election sapped all my energy. But as the new year dawns on us all, I'll be back regularly posting. So much to follow ...

-The 110th Congress: a breath of fresh air or more of the same?
-The Nashville Mayoral race begins in earnest!
-The 105th Tennessee General Assembly convenes next week.

-And, though I prefer to keep my musing relatively local, I may not be able to refrain from commenting on Bush's "New Way Forward in Iraq."

See y'all soon!

News2 - The Candidates Speak - Corker on Iraq

Just caught a new News2 (WKRN) feature. Everyday till the election, they will give a moment to one of the Senate candidates to address a specific question. What a refreshing break from the constant commercials ...

Today it was Bob Corker who was asked what the U.S. should do in Iraq. Here's a summary of Corker's answer:

-Corker doesn't believe that we went into Iraq with enough troops.

Does that mean that Corker wants to send more troops? He didn't say.

-We should listen to the military on military issues.

I'm starting to see a trend ... hmm, didn't Bush give this list last week?

-We need to train Iraqis to handle their own security as soon as possible, disarm militias and concentrate on "hotspots" like Baghdad.

Aah, it is the Bush plan, namely a more verbose form of "stay the course" (wait, I forgot we're not using that phrase anymore) Will there be any surprises? Wait for it ...

-We need to support the Iraqi government as they "figure out how to divide borders within Iraq."

What's this? Divide borders? Does this mean that Corker supports a dissolution of Iraq into 3 ethnic sub-states? This topic has been bandied about for a while. Does this mean that Corker is giving up in the idea of a unified Iraq? So many questions ...


I'm looking forward to this spot evey day.

Faith Day at the Polls

I thought I would pass along information about this event. It's an interesting strategy on the part of local Democrats. I cannot make it tomorrow. But if anyone does, please let us know the details.

Governor Phil Bredesen and Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. will join Bishop Joseph Walker, III and other faith leaders for Faith Day at the Polls this Tuesday, October 31 at 4:30 p.m. CST at the Davidson County Election Commission, Howard School Building, 700 2nd Avenue South, Nashville. All pastors, faith leaders, congregational members, and people of faith are encouraged to join us between 4:30 and 6:00 to vote early and celebrate our faith.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #5 More Numbers?

Math was never my strong suite and the flurry of polls are enough to give me headaches. It's not the simplistic breakdown that the news gives you; it's the assorted related numbers.

For example, the latest Ramussen poll released on Friday shows the same results that other polls have been reporting: Corker %47, Ford, %46. That I can understand ... it's a close race.

But let's add some more layers,

Both candidates win support from most of their partisan base.Unaffiliated voters are split 43% to 43%. Thirty-three percent (33%)of Corker supporters consider their vote to be anti-Ford. Only 21% of Ford supporters consider their vote anti-Corker.

The two candidates have about the same overall favorability rating, but Ford is viewed "very favorably" by more voters—30% versus 22% for Corker.

Almost three quarters of voters say North Korea is at least "somewhat" important in determining how they'll vote in the Senate race. The Foley scandal, by contrast, has traction only with Democrats, disposed to prefer Ford anyway. (link)

First, I'm not sure what the significance of the percentage of voters who are voting specifically against a candidate is. The second factor, who has more "very favorables" is also opaque. Does this suggest that Ford's base is more energized, will turnout be more robust given his high favorability?

Most baffling of all, the average Tennessee voter is basing their vote on North Korea? Really?! I understand that threat of nuclear terrorism can get us fleeing our rational selves. But does anyone really think that Corker or Ford will "do a better job" on North Korea? Do people understand what the Senate does?

King of the County - Nashivlle Mayor's Race

Strategy is everything in life, love and politics. You know how you really, really dislike the merchants who put out the Christmas and holiday signs and sales before Thanksgiving and now even before Halloween? Well, Howard Gentry in his campaign for Mayor of Nashville has joined their annoying ranks.

Gentry put up his yard signs for Mayor this weekend - 10 months before the Mayor's election and 10 days before the election for Governor, U.S.Senate, Congress and General Assembly. Apprently Gentry suffers from this kind of mismanagement frequently. As Vice Mayor his job essentially is to appoint committee chairs and manage the Metro Council meetings. However, in that role, Gentry's claim to fame is that he is king of bad management as he lets Council meetings roll on to 1:00AM and 2:00AM in the morning.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #4

Why do politicos assume we are dumb? Today I got a push poll from Bob Corker although the voice claimed to be policy, not politically, based. The computerized voice said it was a "Tennessee" group calling me but my caller ID said it was Herndon,Virginia. It asked my opinion on guns, gays, abortion, terrorists, taxes, etc. but noticeably did not ask about Iraq, North Korea, Social Security, or the deficit. On each issue it followed any "yes" answer by reciting that Harold Ford is terrible on that issue.

Are our voters really this naive that they would believe anything an anonymous mechanical voice says about either Ford or Corker?

Ford-Corker Debate - Future or the Past?

Depending on what your predictions are about the upcoming election; or on your thoughts on the influence and importance of a debate ... it was unfortunate that the final Ford-Corker debate had to compete with the Vols game on Saturday night. I'm not sure who beyond a small politically-obsessed portion of Tennessee's population gave it the attention that the debate deserved.

Fortunately for the football fans, the debate didn't offer anything strikingly new concerning these two candidates. At least nothing that one couldn't glean from some astute attention to the campaign thus far.

Of particlar note was Corker's opening statement. Check out Sean B at Nashville for the 21st Century for more on this bit from the final Ford-Corker Debate. Corker told the same tired, and apprently pointless story about starting his business with "$8,000 and a pick-up truck." By contrast, Ford spent his time talking about the issues, focusing on the future. Agree or disagree with Ford's policy ideas, no one can say that he isn't talking about the issues.

*Sigh* Corker's story is tired code to communicate his 'self-made' status. The same logic lies behind his series of commericals featuring his family. I've already commented on the one featuring his wife Lizzie. The one with his daughters is far more inane. I don't think his daughters could sound more disinterested as they recite a litany singing Bob's praises. My favorite line ... "he's hilarious ..."

I'd be laughing too if it weren't so serious.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #3 or What's in a Number?

Polls, polls, polls ... everbody's got one ... they all say something
different. Here's a rundown of the latest prognostication. The
Tennessean is out today with the banner headline, "Corker a
bit ahead in tight, mean race." (link- Tennessean) Citing the
latest(?) Los Angeles Times poll, they claim Corker is ahead
by 5 points.

On the other hand, the SurveyUSA poll from October 25th has the
race a dead heat at 48% a piece with an all important 4% undecided.
(link - SurveyUSA)

So many polls ... all so close ... it's going to be interesting.

On a related poll note, I think the polls have everything to do with
Bredesen's hyper-activity on Ford's behalf. At this point, there are
2 major tv ads. (link - YouTube) This is a clear sign that Ford's polling numbers are "good enough" to earn Bredesen's help. Earlier when Ford's numbers were far poorer, Bredesen would not even make joint appearances with him.

This is also a clear sign that Bredesen's race is all sewn-up. Speaking of polls, Bredesen continues to hold a massive lead over
Jim Bryson. Can you say 30 points?! (link - SurveyUSA)