Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #5 More Numbers?

Math was never my strong suite and the flurry of polls are enough to give me headaches. It's not the simplistic breakdown that the news gives you; it's the assorted related numbers.

For example, the latest Ramussen poll released on Friday shows the same results that other polls have been reporting: Corker %47, Ford, %46. That I can understand ... it's a close race.

But let's add some more layers,

Both candidates win support from most of their partisan base.Unaffiliated voters are split 43% to 43%. Thirty-three percent (33%)of Corker supporters consider their vote to be anti-Ford. Only 21% of Ford supporters consider their vote anti-Corker.

The two candidates have about the same overall favorability rating, but Ford is viewed "very favorably" by more voters—30% versus 22% for Corker.

Almost three quarters of voters say North Korea is at least "somewhat" important in determining how they'll vote in the Senate race. The Foley scandal, by contrast, has traction only with Democrats, disposed to prefer Ford anyway. (link)

First, I'm not sure what the significance of the percentage of voters who are voting specifically against a candidate is. The second factor, who has more "very favorables" is also opaque. Does this suggest that Ford's base is more energized, will turnout be more robust given his high favorability?

Most baffling of all, the average Tennessee voter is basing their vote on North Korea? Really?! I understand that threat of nuclear terrorism can get us fleeing our rational selves. But does anyone really think that Corker or Ford will "do a better job" on North Korea? Do people understand what the Senate does?

King of the County - Nashivlle Mayor's Race

Strategy is everything in life, love and politics. You know how you really, really dislike the merchants who put out the Christmas and holiday signs and sales before Thanksgiving and now even before Halloween? Well, Howard Gentry in his campaign for Mayor of Nashville has joined their annoying ranks.

Gentry put up his yard signs for Mayor this weekend - 10 months before the Mayor's election and 10 days before the election for Governor, U.S.Senate, Congress and General Assembly. Apprently Gentry suffers from this kind of mismanagement frequently. As Vice Mayor his job essentially is to appoint committee chairs and manage the Metro Council meetings. However, in that role, Gentry's claim to fame is that he is king of bad management as he lets Council meetings roll on to 1:00AM and 2:00AM in the morning.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #4

Why do politicos assume we are dumb? Today I got a push poll from Bob Corker although the voice claimed to be policy, not politically, based. The computerized voice said it was a "Tennessee" group calling me but my caller ID said it was Herndon,Virginia. It asked my opinion on guns, gays, abortion, terrorists, taxes, etc. but noticeably did not ask about Iraq, North Korea, Social Security, or the deficit. On each issue it followed any "yes" answer by reciting that Harold Ford is terrible on that issue.

Are our voters really this naive that they would believe anything an anonymous mechanical voice says about either Ford or Corker?

Ford-Corker Debate - Future or the Past?

Depending on what your predictions are about the upcoming election; or on your thoughts on the influence and importance of a debate ... it was unfortunate that the final Ford-Corker debate had to compete with the Vols game on Saturday night. I'm not sure who beyond a small politically-obsessed portion of Tennessee's population gave it the attention that the debate deserved.

Fortunately for the football fans, the debate didn't offer anything strikingly new concerning these two candidates. At least nothing that one couldn't glean from some astute attention to the campaign thus far.

Of particlar note was Corker's opening statement. Check out Sean B at Nashville for the 21st Century for more on this bit from the final Ford-Corker Debate. Corker told the same tired, and apprently pointless story about starting his business with "$8,000 and a pick-up truck." By contrast, Ford spent his time talking about the issues, focusing on the future. Agree or disagree with Ford's policy ideas, no one can say that he isn't talking about the issues.

*Sigh* Corker's story is tired code to communicate his 'self-made' status. The same logic lies behind his series of commericals featuring his family. I've already commented on the one featuring his wife Lizzie. The one with his daughters is far more inane. I don't think his daughters could sound more disinterested as they recite a litany singing Bob's praises. My favorite line ... "he's hilarious ..."

I'd be laughing too if it weren't so serious.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #3 or What's in a Number?

Polls, polls, polls ... everbody's got one ... they all say something
different. Here's a rundown of the latest prognostication. The
Tennessean is out today with the banner headline, "Corker a
bit ahead in tight, mean race." (link- Tennessean) Citing the
latest(?) Los Angeles Times poll, they claim Corker is ahead
by 5 points.

On the other hand, the SurveyUSA poll from October 25th has the
race a dead heat at 48% a piece with an all important 4% undecided.
(link - SurveyUSA)

So many polls ... all so close ... it's going to be interesting.

On a related poll note, I think the polls have everything to do with
Bredesen's hyper-activity on Ford's behalf. At this point, there are
2 major tv ads. (link - YouTube) This is a clear sign that Ford's polling numbers are "good enough" to earn Bredesen's help. Earlier when Ford's numbers were far poorer, Bredesen would not even make joint appearances with him.

This is also a clear sign that Bredesen's race is all sewn-up. Speaking of polls, Bredesen continues to hold a massive lead over
Jim Bryson. Can you say 30 points?! (link - SurveyUSA)

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #2

FORD vs. CORKER #2 For all the claims of the "most negative campaign ever." I was particular struck by Ford's speech at the Nashville Exchange club on Tuesday (link - Tennessean). Ford emphasized Iraq and his faith based views ala the Golden Rule (remember that little gem?). What was missing was mud-slinging attacks against Corker.

I'd even go as far as saying that Ford's tv ads are compartively tame. The brunt of the Corker attack ads are paid for by the DSCC. Now, I know that to some there is little difference between the Ford campaign and the DSCC. But I think it's telling compared to Corker's incessent attack ads, all duely tagged, "I'm Bob Corker and I approve this message."

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #1

Where to begin?!This race has become such a media entity both locally and nationally. Here are a few tidbits ahead to whet our appetite ahead of the Corker and Ford face off for the third and final debate of the campaign.

FORD v. CORKER#1- Though it's old news, it is interesting that the new campaign management team for Corker as of a couple of weeks ago is led by Tom Ingram who is Sen Lamar Alexander's chief of staff. It's hard to assess these past couple of weeks. Poll numbers say one thing ... I'll be dealing with that in shortly. Corker's campaign has blitzed the local TV markets with a bizarre array of ads. Has anyone seen the one with his wife Elizabeth? (link - Youtube) Is that supposed to go for family value voters? Seems to me to a shinking ship of an ad. Gernally, it seems like Corker's ad strategy is to throw everything against the wall and see what sticks. I don't know what role Ingram has in all this. Though it is interesting to note that Ingram is a big time Democrat. Word is that Ingram will be voting for Bredesen. (link - Metropulse).

Congressional Upheaval? Not Here ...

Despite all the national talk about upheaval in Congress due to Iraq, Mark Foley and Bush's generally abysmal ratings, in Tennessee the more things change the more they stay the same.

Here's the rundown:
All incumbent Representatives  - Jimmy Duncan, Zach Wamp, Marsha Blackburn, Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, Jim Cooper, John Tanner will win.

The Republican nominee, David Davis, will apparently win in 1stDistrict succeeding the retiring Rep. Bill Jenkins. Not a surprise as the Republicans have held this seat since 1881!

In the big 9th District (Shelby County) race for Congress to succeed Harold Ford Jr.,  state Senator Steve Cohen should defeat both the Republican and the Ford family candidate, Jake Ford. 

King of the County - The 2007 Nashville Mayor's Race

This 2007 election is already bloody.

The Contenders:
Clear favorite in both votes and money is former Congressman Bob Clement. Chasing the leader is Vice Mayor Howard Gentry and Councilman Buck Dozier, trying to catch up. Now Councilman-at-large David Briley is about to jump in this race as well.

The Match-up:
So it will be Clement versus three guys from the Nashville Metro Council ... a group that has lower approval ratings than President Bush and Congress, if you can imagine; whose new Courthouse building, not yet completed, is already the source of rumors about cost overruns (link - The Tennessean) and the kind of luxury carpeting and baubles that got the President of UT run off a couple of years ago.

Clement is challenging his opponents with an aggressive plan for a neighborhood advisory council, infrastructure repairs (storm water problems, street repairs, etc), and reducing crime by cracking down on drug dealers and cracking down on gangs.

Clement's opponents don't seem to understand or feel the pain of everyday people on these issues. Gentry was recently quoted that crime is important because we need to worry about artists who might not play at the new Symphony Hall because of their fear of crime. Clement's opponents were described by the Republican Party County Chairman as being soft on crime when Clement called for a crackdown on drugs and gangs to improve the quality of life in a recent mayor's debate. (link - City Paper).

With this sort of matchup, I might return to watching the Titans for some suspense.

Bredesen on '08?! And Who's Next?

At the Tennessee Womens Political Caucus convention in Nashville this past weekend Bredesen spoke and was asked if he would run for President in 2008. He tapdanced quickly away from any real answer but my inside source says Bredesen has a campaign button (given to him as a gift) that says "Phil in 08". Since no Democrat has won the Presidency since 1932 unless he (or she) carried at least two or three southern states. Bredesen has to think about this more than he admits. I am are sure this had nothing to do with Bredesen writing an op-ed piece for the New York Times (link - login maybe required)  two weeks ago urging that a national campaign about healthcare reform should be the mantra for the Democrats. The Democrats would do well to take his advice.

In other gubentorial news, the 2010 race has already started. Why do you think Marsha Blackburn is running that talking head ad? (looking for the link) Why do you think conservative Lincoln Davis sent Beecher Stevens, his chief political guy, over to run the Harold Ford campaign? Can Knoxville Mayor Haslam, Bill Purcell, Steve Gill etc be far behind?

The Founding of Nashborough

Founded in 1779, our fair community of Nashborough tooks its first wobbly steps upon the banks of the Cumberland River. In an early display of political spin, our leaders changed the name of our community to Nashville, demonstrating disdain for our British oppressors and favor for our revolutionary French brethren.

In commemoration of the bicentennial of our city (I know ... 2006 and 1779 ...? Such are the vagaries of technicalities) I thought it was time to add my voice to the growing chorus of bloggers. In honor of the political spin that lies at the very heart of our beloved Nashville, Nashborough Politics will attempt to cut through the mud-slinging, innuendo, and general hoopla. Nashborough Politics brings you all the happenings in Tennessee politics with a unique style.

I am no one of particular import, just a news-junkie with some skills that both politicans and journalists assume none of us possess: critical thinking skills and a knack for logically correct argument.

Enjoy!