The Next Governor's Race

It's never too early to start thinking about who will vie for Bredesen's job in 2010. I've mused earlier on this, commenting that Rep. Marsha Blackburn's ads in the 2006 House race had an eye on the Governor's Mansion in 2010.

I think it's time to add another Republican name to the potential bunch. Former Senator Bill Frist. Having officially declined to enter into the 2008 presidential fray, he's spending more time with his family. And who could blame him? The prospect of campaigning on the shining acheivements of the 109th Congress wasn't exactly thrilling, least of all to the leader of that fracas.

Bill may consider taking historically more successful route to the White House. Most who successfully run for President have been their homestate governor may be his thinking and he is right. By 2010, the memory of the 109th Congress will probably be long fuzzy.

Other Repubicans wanting to run may turn out to be Marsha Blackburn, Zach Wamp, and maybe Jim Haslam Jr.

Legal Red Tape (the whole roll)

Business TN has an interesting cover article about one figure caught in the bruhaha between Bredesen and the Judicial Selection Commission. (Business TN) Interesting for its coverage of the history of the Tennessee Plan and its unforseen consequences, this piece is really a pean for J. Houston Gordon. An emminently qualified jurist, Gordon is caught in the peculiar situation of being on the controversial slate resubmitted by the Judicial Selection Commission.

Interesting reading ... but a technical legal controversy only a lawyer could love.

King of the County - Big Bucks and a New Face

Aah, the new year, time for the Nashville Mayoral race to get serious. Two interesting tibdits.

-Clement winning over Republicans? The City Paper is reporting today on the electoral importance of winning over Davidson County Republicans. Clement is apprently taking this advice seriously, having had a sit-down with State Rep. Beth Harwell. Also of interest is Davidson County Republican Chariman Jon Crisp's comment that Republicans are leaning toward Bob Clement. An early trend but significant. If you combine Clement's apparent growing Republican support with his Democratic base and that does not leave much room for other candidates. It's shaping up to be a $2 million race for Mayor. It's highly doubtful that anyone but Clement can raise that amount.

-The crucial issues facing Mayoral candidates are shaping up to be Education and Crime. Bob Clement has emphasized these issues for a year now. Today, the City Paper editorial has agreed, pointing to them as the key issues for the race. There seems to be lots of agreement. David Briley, Karl Dean, and Buck Dozier all echoed same two issues in their announcements. So, no disagreement on issues. Everyone is moving to ground that Clement has cultivated for some time now. Winning is all about shaping the debate. Clement's team has done it's job well.

-As for the new face, Karl Dean's entry to mayoral race is big news. But it seems to be bad news for David Briley. They both draw from the same young trial lawyer base of support. One big difference is that Dean's wife has a significant family coal-mining fortune. Dean will probably follow Bredesen's model and self-finance to take advantage of that pot of money. While the money will flow, Dean may be forgetting that Bredesen lost his first two elections (agianst Bill Boner for Mayor and against Bob Clement for Congress in late 1980's). Money aside, Dean may have other problems. Dean also is viewed as the candidate who will keep the incumbents like David Manning (widely unpopular) in office. Despite all this, Dean is getting serious. He is offering staff jobs at up to $10,000 per month already and hired Jim Hester at a reported $8,000 per month. Hester ran Ford campaign up to June 2006 when he was forced out and moved over to Democratic Coordinated Campaign (not a good sign).

Cleaning out the Inbox - Governor and Party Roundup

-Gary Odom was elected by Democrats in the General Assembly. It appears to be a protest vote against Bredesen, punishment for his beneign neglect of them. Odom and Bredesen never been close. If anyone recalls, Odom raised significant questions about finances and contracts on Bredesen's original deal with Titans. Odom was right but nobody cared. Football can always trump politics.

-Gov. Bredesen has appointed Stuart Brunson to be new Deputy Governor, replacing Dave Cooley. This is a speed-bump of a story. Brunson's appointment will mean little practical change as Cooley and Brunson have long worked together as a team. A new face is all this is really about. The only significant change that Brunson's appointment will bring is even more influence for Johnny Hayes, Bredesen's chief fundraiser. Brunson and Hayes are business partners in various lobbying interests. The pick of the new Deputy Governor is all in the family.

-Not getting the tap for Deputy Governor was Randy Button, former Democratic state party chair. Failing to get the spot, Button has formed a lobbying company of his own.

-Bredesen apparently will tap Gray Sasser, son of former U.S. Senator Sasser, to be the new Democratic state party chair. A weak move by Bredesen as there seems to be some doubts about Gray's fundraising abilities. All this is of course subject to a vote next week by the state party executive committee. But really, whoever Bredesen wants in this role, he'll get.

Cleaning out the Inbox

As the new year rolls on, I thought I'd at post some of the tidbits from the past month or so. I know, I know ... old news is not news. I'll feel better though when the inbox is clean. So, following will be series of old news posts

Surge and Accelerate - Getting Ready for the Debate

The semi-official leaks of the "New Way Forward in Iraq" are making their way through the morning news shows. While none of the information is a surprise, the media engines are beginning to rev in preparation for exhausting coverage of the official announcement scheduled for sometime next week.

So let's review ahead of the media blast.

According to the leaks the plan's central pillar is to boost troops numbers by 20,000. Also, reconstruction funding will be boosted. The "logic" of the plan is to accelerate the fight for security so that the Iraqi's can take over security roles sooner. The title of this new way forward? "Surge and Accelerate"

Ok, let's take this step by step:

-This plan is immensely unpopular: The American people are overwhelmingly against the idea of a surge. 56% Oppose, 11% Favor, %32 for the Status Quo. (Polling Report). The troops on the ground oppose this plan. For the first time, serving troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war. In terms of troop numbers, 39% favor current levels or lower while %22 favor a surge similar to Bush's plan. (Military Times Poll)(AP News).

-In terms of the reconstruction effort, where did Bush get the notion that more money is the answer. As has been amply demonstrated, the problem with the reconstruction to date has been corruption and a lack of security. (Washington Post)(BBC). Even giving Bush the benefit of the doubt about the outcome of the surge in terms of security, I will be eagerly awaiting details on where this new money will come from and how it will be handled differently from past reconstruction monies that have been squandered, wasted, or outright stolen. Also, while Congressional Democrats may be too timid to withhold funding from our troops, it is a relatively risk-free proposition to withhold funding from the proven money-pit that is the Iraqi Reconstruction.

-From a P.R. perspective, "Surge and Accelerate"? Really?! This is the best they can come up with? In a more serious vein, the time for new slogans has long been over. But apparently, P.R. and political concerns are paramount with the Administration. The New York Times had an interesting piece yesterday. Apparently, by mid-September the Administration could not deny what has been obvious to the rest of the world, namely that Iraq was spiraling out of control. They saw the need for a reassessment but would not say so publically before the elections. So, let me get this straight, the lives of our troops are less important that appearing steadfast?! (New York Times).

This just in, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has announced that he will not seek a second term and that he "wishes his job was over"!! (Reuters).

Worst of all, this is the administration's best idea! No really, no other ideas. The American Enterpise Institute's Frederick Kagan told the Wall Street Journal yesterday.

"If we surge and it doesn't work, it's hard to imagine what we do after that. But we're already in a very bad spot, and if we don't do anything defeat is imminent."

All in all, I don't see more numbers making a difference. But it sure will be an interesting week.