Sunday, October 29, 2006

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #5 More Numbers?

Math was never my strong suite and the flurry of polls are enough to give me headaches. It's not the simplistic breakdown that the news gives you; it's the assorted related numbers.

For example, the latest Ramussen poll released on Friday shows the same results that other polls have been reporting: Corker %47, Ford, %46. That I can understand ... it's a close race.

But let's add some more layers,

Both candidates win support from most of their partisan base.Unaffiliated voters are split 43% to 43%. Thirty-three percent (33%)of Corker supporters consider their vote to be anti-Ford. Only 21% of Ford supporters consider their vote anti-Corker.

The two candidates have about the same overall favorability rating, but Ford is viewed "very favorably" by more voters—30% versus 22% for Corker.

Almost three quarters of voters say North Korea is at least "somewhat" important in determining how they'll vote in the Senate race. The Foley scandal, by contrast, has traction only with Democrats, disposed to prefer Ford anyway. (link)

First, I'm not sure what the significance of the percentage of voters who are voting specifically against a candidate is. The second factor, who has more "very favorables" is also opaque. Does this suggest that Ford's base is more energized, will turnout be more robust given his high favorability?

Most baffling of all, the average Tennessee voter is basing their vote on North Korea? Really?! I understand that threat of nuclear terrorism can get us fleeing our rational selves. But does anyone really think that Corker or Ford will "do a better job" on North Korea? Do people understand what the Senate does?

King of the County - Nashivlle Mayor's Race

Strategy is everything in life, love and politics. You know how you really, really dislike the merchants who put out the Christmas and holiday signs and sales before Thanksgiving and now even before Halloween? Well, Howard Gentry in his campaign for Mayor of Nashville has joined their annoying ranks.

Gentry put up his yard signs for Mayor this weekend - 10 months before the Mayor's election and 10 days before the election for Governor, U.S.Senate, Congress and General Assembly. Apprently Gentry suffers from this kind of mismanagement frequently. As Vice Mayor his job essentially is to appoint committee chairs and manage the Metro Council meetings. However, in that role, Gentry's claim to fame is that he is king of bad management as he lets Council meetings roll on to 1:00AM and 2:00AM in the morning.

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #4

Why do politicos assume we are dumb? Today I got a push poll from Bob Corker although the voice claimed to be policy, not politically, based. The computerized voice said it was a "Tennessee" group calling me but my caller ID said it was Herndon,Virginia. It asked my opinion on guns, gays, abortion, terrorists, taxes, etc. but noticeably did not ask about Iraq, North Korea, Social Security, or the deficit. On each issue it followed any "yes" answer by reciting that Harold Ford is terrible on that issue.

Are our voters really this naive that they would believe anything an anonymous mechanical voice says about either Ford or Corker?

Ford-Corker Debate - Future or the Past?

Depending on what your predictions are about the upcoming election; or on your thoughts on the influence and importance of a debate ... it was unfortunate that the final Ford-Corker debate had to compete with the Vols game on Saturday night. I'm not sure who beyond a small politically-obsessed portion of Tennessee's population gave it the attention that the debate deserved.

Fortunately for the football fans, the debate didn't offer anything strikingly new concerning these two candidates. At least nothing that one couldn't glean from some astute attention to the campaign thus far.

Of particlar note was Corker's opening statement. Check out Sean B at Nashville for the 21st Century for more on this bit from the final Ford-Corker Debate. Corker told the same tired, and apprently pointless story about starting his business with "$8,000 and a pick-up truck." By contrast, Ford spent his time talking about the issues, focusing on the future. Agree or disagree with Ford's policy ideas, no one can say that he isn't talking about the issues.

*Sigh* Corker's story is tired code to communicate his 'self-made' status. The same logic lies behind his series of commericals featuring his family. I've already commented on the one featuring his wife Lizzie. The one with his daughters is far more inane. I don't think his daughters could sound more disinterested as they recite a litany singing Bob's praises. My favorite line ... "he's hilarious ..."

I'd be laughing too if it weren't so serious.