Sunday, October 29, 2006

Ford vs. Corker Tidbits - #5 More Numbers?

Math was never my strong suite and the flurry of polls are enough to give me headaches. It's not the simplistic breakdown that the news gives you; it's the assorted related numbers.

For example, the latest Ramussen poll released on Friday shows the same results that other polls have been reporting: Corker %47, Ford, %46. That I can understand ... it's a close race.

But let's add some more layers,

Both candidates win support from most of their partisan base.Unaffiliated voters are split 43% to 43%. Thirty-three percent (33%)of Corker supporters consider their vote to be anti-Ford. Only 21% of Ford supporters consider their vote anti-Corker.

The two candidates have about the same overall favorability rating, but Ford is viewed "very favorably" by more voters—30% versus 22% for Corker.

Almost three quarters of voters say North Korea is at least "somewhat" important in determining how they'll vote in the Senate race. The Foley scandal, by contrast, has traction only with Democrats, disposed to prefer Ford anyway. (link)

First, I'm not sure what the significance of the percentage of voters who are voting specifically against a candidate is. The second factor, who has more "very favorables" is also opaque. Does this suggest that Ford's base is more energized, will turnout be more robust given his high favorability?

Most baffling of all, the average Tennessee voter is basing their vote on North Korea? Really?! I understand that threat of nuclear terrorism can get us fleeing our rational selves. But does anyone really think that Corker or Ford will "do a better job" on North Korea? Do people understand what the Senate does?

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